The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, rather it’s best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.
The latest estimate shows GDP at -1.8 percent for the first quarter, however, the alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold, is 0.2 percent.
