On Wednesday, a team of economists at TSLombard tried to put a number on it, estimating that the total size of the trade could be as much as $1.1 trillion accumulated over the past 18 months or so.
That amount, they said, was equivalent to all short-term borrowing in Japanese repo and securities-lending markets by foreign investors since the end of 2022. It also includes all foreign securities purchased by Japanese buyers, with the assumption that these trades were financed with borrowed yen.
This number represents a ceiling. But foreign investors engaging in short-term borrowing from Japanese securities dealers represent most of the total. This strongly suggests that most, if not the entire amount, could account for the carry trade.
The full article is available at https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-rise-as-stock-market-rebound-continues/card/tslombard-estimates-size-of-yen-carry-trade-at-1-1-trillion-SpzKQKK9FWzd2VLwPmTp